As we head into the home stretch of the 2020 election, we hear constant reminders that in 2016, “all the polls had Hillary Clinton in a landslide over Trump!”
That’s not entirely true. Through much of the early part of the campaign, the polling had Clinton ahead, but the polls tightened significantly right before the election, especially after Comey announced the “reopening” of the email investigation, and many of them were within the margin of error.
You can expect the polls for Biden and Trump will likewise tighten before the election. They almost always do.
The polls did correctly predict, however, that Clinton would get more votes than Trump. She got nearly three million more. In that sense, the polls were right on the money.
Lessons from this? Oh, plenty. The bottom line is, though, VOTE. The poll that really counts is the election.